A farmer harvests apples that are heavier than the average 5 kg weight for that variety. He plants the seeds from the harvest hoping that the next generation will produce even heavier apples. Using the results found by Galton, which statement is most likely true regarding the weight of the next generation?
Answer
A
The next generation will weigh twice as much as the parent generation, closer to 10 kg.
B
The next generation will weigh exactly the same as the parent generation.
C
The next generation will weigh less than the parent generation, closer to 5 kg.
D
The next generation will weigh less than the parent generation, closer to 2.5 kg.
Explanation
Galton found that unusually large or small traits tend to be less extreme in the next generation, a pattern called regression toward the mean. Since the parent apples are heavier than the variety’s 5 kg average, the next generation is likely to be lighter than the parent apples but closer to 5 kg—not as low as 2.5 kg.
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