Question 4 • HCISD-Mathematical Models with Applications B-CR SUMMER
Josh used a standard deck of 52 cards to conduct an experiment. Half of the cards in the deck were red. The other half were black. Josh predicted that he would choose a red card in 4 out of 8 trials. When he conducted the experiment, he actually chose a red card 6 out of 8 times. Which explains the most likely reason for the discrepancy between Josh’s predicted and actual results?
Answer
A
He incorrectly predicted the number of times he would choose a red card.
B
He incorrectly determined the actual number of times he chose a red card.
C
He used too few trials for the sample space.
D
He used too many trials for the sample space.
Explanation
A standard deck has 26 red cards out of 52, so the probability of choosing red is 1/2. Josh’s prediction of 4 red cards in 8 trials matches that probability, but a small number of trials can produce results that differ from the prediction by chance. Thus, the most likely reason is that he used too few trials; “too many trials” would generally make the results more likely to approach the predicted proportion.
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