A newspaper poll found that 54% of the respondents in a random sample of voters in the city plan to vote for candidate Roberts. A 95 percent confidence interval for the population proportion is 0.54 ± 0.06. Based on this interval, what can the newspaper report?
Answer
A
There is a 95% chance that Roberts will win.
B
The race is too close to call, so no prediction about who will win should be made.
C
With 95% confidence, there is convincing evidence that Roberts will win.
D
The poll predicts Roberts will win, but there is a 5% chance that the prediction is incorrect due to sampling error.
Explanation
The 95% confidence interval is 0.54 ± 0.06, or 0.48 to 0.60. Because the interval includes 0.50, the poll does not provide convincing evidence that more than half of voters support Roberts. The newspaper should report that the race is too close to call, rather than claim Roberts will win or assign a 5% chance that its prediction is wrong.
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