Dropping a piece of buttered toast will theoretically land butter-side down with a probability of 0.65. Some students decided to test this theory and dropped five pieces of buttered toast. All five landed butter-side down. One of the students claims that the next piece of buttered toast dropped will land butter-side up because it is due to happen.

Each drop is a separate trial, so five butter-side-down results do not make butter-side up “due” on the next drop. If the theory is correct, the probability of landing butter-side down remains 0.65 for each drop; over many trials, the proportion landing down is expected to approach 0.65. Therefore, the correct choice is “No, the probability ... is 0.65 over a large number of trials.”

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