Ordering the Chaos of the Contemporary World: An Introduction to Freakonomics
Question 3 • AZ-English Language Arts 11 B-CR
What logical evidence do Levitt and Dubner present in response to the counterclaim that a 7–7 wrestler might be more motivated to win and therefore perform better?In the next match, 7–7 wrestlers’ results drop below their predicted percentage.The 7–7 wrestlers do well against both 8–6 and 9–5 opponents.Wrestling matches only last a few seconds and are won by a quick exertion of force.Wrestlers from the same stable do not oppose one another.
Answer
A
In the next match, 7–7 wrestlers’ results drop below their predicted percentage.
B
The 7–7 wrestlers do well against both 8–6 and 9–5 opponents.
C
Wrestling matches only last a few seconds and are won by a quick exertion of force.
D
Wrestlers from the same stable do not oppose one another.
Explanation
If 7–7 wrestlers were winning because their extra motivation made them perform better, that advantage should be visible beyond the match that gets them to 8–7. Levitt and Dubner point out that in the next match, their results fall below the percentage predicted for them. This weakens the motivation explanation; the relevant evidence is that their later performance drops, not simply that they win against particular opponents.
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